Our live model gives United States a 3.2% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 100% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 1st in Group D. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

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How far they go

Reach the Round of 32100%

Round of 1674%

Quarter-final47%

Semi-final19%

Final7.8%

Champion3.2%

Group D standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
United States	7.7	100%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
Australia	4.4	0.0%	65%	35%	93%
Paraguay	4.3	0.0%	35%	65%	84%
Türkiye	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →