Our live model gives Austria a <1% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 95% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 2nd in Group J. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

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How far they go

Reach the Round of 3295%

Round of 1628%

Quarter-final10%

Semi-final3.7%

Final1.1%

Champion<1%

Group J standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
Argentina	8.7	100%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
Austria	4.5	0.0%	68%	32%	95%
Algeria	4.3	0.0%	32%	68%	84%
Jordan	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →