Our live model gives Australia a 0.0% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 100% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 2nd in Group D. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

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Next match

Round of 32 (projected). Reaches it in 100% of simulations. See the live page for the likely opponent.

How far they go

Reach the Round of 32100%

Round of 160.0%

Quarter-final0.0%

Semi-final0.0%

Final0.0%

Champion0.0%

Group D standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
United States	6.0	100%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
Australia	4.0	0.0%	100%	0.0%	100%
Paraguay	4.0	0.0%	0.0%	100%	100%
Türkiye	3.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Results

14 Jun Australia 2–0 Türkiye

19 Jun United States 2–0 Australia

26 Jun Paraguay 0–0 Australia

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →

Forecast published 21 Sep 12:08 UTC · model v0.3.6, results 9 min old · 20260921T120844Z-c3cf21 · status & freshness