Our live model gives Portugal a 8.0% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 100% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 2nd in Group K. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

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How far they go

Reach the Round of 32100%

Round of 1674%

Quarter-final46%

Semi-final28%

Final15%

Champion8.0%

Group K standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
Colombia	7.0	51%	49%	0.0%	100%
Portugal	5.7	49%	51%	<1%	100%
DR Congo	2.7	0.0%	<1%	74%	52%
Uzbekistan	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	25%	8.8%

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →