Our live model gives Qatar a 0.0% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 18% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 4th in Group B. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

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How far they go

Reach the Round of 3218%

Round of 161.6%

Quarter-final<1%

Semi-final<1%

Final0.0%

Champion0.0%

Group B standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
Switzerland	5.6	45%	55%	0.0%	100%
Canada	5.1	55%	45%	<1%	100%
Bosnia & Herzegovina	3.0	0.0%	<1%	82%	59%
Qatar	1.8	0.0%	0.0%	18%	18%

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →