Our live model gives Ecuador a <1% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 23% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 3rd in Group E. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

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How far they go

Reach the Round of 3223%

Round of 1610%

Quarter-final4.0%

Semi-final1.4%

Final<1%

Champion<1%

Group E standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
Germany	7.8	100%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
Côte d'Ivoire	5.4	0.0%	91%	6.9%	97%
Ecuador	1.9	0.0%	2.0%	83%	23%
Curaçao	1.4	0.0%	6.9%	11%	8.8%

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →