Our live model gives South Korea a <1% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 94% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 2nd in Group A. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

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How far they go

Reach the Round of 3294%

Round of 1641%

Quarter-final13%

Semi-final3.4%

Final1.0%

Champion<1%

Group A standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
Mexico	7.9	100%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
South Korea	5.0	0.0%	83%	13%	94%
Czechia	1.9	0.0%	3.2%	67%	24%
South Africa	1.7	0.0%	13%	20%	17%

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →