Our live model gives Switzerland a 1.2% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 100% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 1st in Group B. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

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How far they go

Reach the Round of 32100%

Round of 1662%

Quarter-final26%

Semi-final9.0%

Final3.4%

Champion1.2%

Group B standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
Switzerland	5.6	45%	55%	0.0%	100%
Canada	5.1	55%	45%	<1%	100%
Bosnia & Herzegovina	3.0	0.0%	<1%	82%	59%
Qatar	1.8	0.0%	0.0%	18%	18%

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →