Our live model gives Japan a 1.3% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 100% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 2nd in Group F. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

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How far they go

Reach the Round of 32100%

Round of 1640%

Quarter-final20%

Semi-final8.6%

Final3.5%

Champion1.3%

Group F standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
Netherlands	6.6	74%	26%	<1%	100%
Japan	5.7	22%	54%	24%	100%
Sweden	4.0	4.4%	20%	75%	95%
Tunisia	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →