Our live model gives Morocco a 2.5% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 100% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 1st in Group C. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

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How far they go

Reach the Round of 32100%

Round of 1649%

Quarter-final29%

Semi-final13%

Final5.9%

Champion2.5%

Group C standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
Morocco	6.6	38%	61%	0.7%	100%
Brazil	6.3	60%	29%	11%	100%
Scotland	3.6	2.2%	9.8%	88%	82%
Haiti	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →