Our live model gives Egypt a <1% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 100% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 1st in Group G. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

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How far they go

Reach the Round of 32100%

Round of 1648%

Quarter-final17%

Semi-final4.3%

Final1.1%

Champion<1%

Group G standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
Egypt	5.7	64%	15%	20%	100%
Belgium	4.5	21%	63%	9.6%	92%
Iran	3.1	15%	16%	64%	56%
New Zealand	1.4	0.0%	5.9%	5.6%	8.1%

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →