Our live model gives Sweden a <1% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 95% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 3rd in Group F. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

Open the live interactive forecast →

How far they go

Reach the Round of 3295%

Round of 1621%

Quarter-final7.3%

Semi-final2.3%

Final0.7%

Champion<1%

Group F standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
Netherlands	6.6	74%	26%	<1%	100%
Japan	5.7	22%	54%	24%	100%
Sweden	4.0	4.4%	20%	75%	95%
Tunisia	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →