Our live model gives Belgium a 2.3% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 92% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 2nd in Group G. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

Open the live interactive forecast →

How far they go

Reach the Round of 3292%

Round of 1662%

Quarter-final27%

Semi-final13%

Final5.5%

Champion2.3%

Group G standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
Egypt	5.7	64%	15%	20%	100%
Belgium	4.5	21%	63%	9.6%	92%
Iran	3.1	15%	16%	64%	56%
New Zealand	1.4	0.0%	5.9%	5.6%	8.1%

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →