Our live model gives Argentina a 14.2% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 100% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 1st in Group J. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

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How far they go

Reach the Round of 32100%

Round of 1686%

Quarter-final65%

Semi-final44%

Final26%

Champion14.2%

Group J standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
Argentina	8.7	100%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
Austria	4.5	0.0%	68%	32%	95%
Algeria	4.3	0.0%	32%	68%	84%
Jordan	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →