Our live model gives France a 14.4% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 100% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 1st in Group I. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

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How far they go

Reach the Round of 32100%

Round of 1681%

Quarter-final55%

Semi-final37%

Final23%

Champion14.4%

Group I standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
France	8.0	81%	19%	0.0%	100%
Norway	6.8	19%	81%	0.0%	100%
Senegal	2.3	0.0%	0.0%	90%	67%
Iraq	0.5	0.0%	0.0%	10%	4.8%

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →