Our live model gives England a 12.3% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 100% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 1st in Group L. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

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How far they go

Reach the Round of 32100%

Round of 1679%

Quarter-final57%

Semi-final36%

Final22%

Champion12.3%

Group L standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
England	6.6	86%	14%	<1%	100%
Croatia	5.0	9.4%	49%	41%	97%
Ghana	4.8	4.3%	37%	59%	100%
Panama	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →