Our live model gives Spain a 14.4% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and a 100% chance of reaching the Round of 32, currently projected to finish 1st in Group H. The figures below update continuously as results come in.

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How far they go

Reach the Round of 32100%

Round of 1679%

Quarter-final53%

Semi-final39%

Final24%

Champion14.4%

Group H standings

Team	Proj	1st	2nd	3rd	Adv
Spain	6.1	85%	9.9%	5.5%	100%
Cape Verde	3.4	2.6%	53%	20%	65%
Uruguay	2.7	13%	7.4%	68%	41%
Saudi Arabia	2.3	0.0%	30%	6.3%	35%

Projected points and finish odds come from a 100,000-run Monte-Carlo simulation that blends Elo, FIFA ranking and squad value with de-vigged market odds, under FIFA's tiebreakers. How it works →